Defence Codex - The journal for defence engineering & science

Battling the elements

By providing weather services to support the Armed Forces, both in the UK and abroad, the Met Office helps improve the safety of troops. Services to defence include advising on weather risks on the ground, such as heat stress, through to predictions of dust that impact aircraft on take-off and landing. Codex travelled in a south westerly direction to visit their Exeter headquarters and find out more about their work in defence.

A trading fund of the MOD, the Met Office advises military decision makers on the impact of climate and environmental factors and provides a range of tools and systems to support military operations. Their research into future climate change helps plan future equipment capability and an understanding of how future conflicts may develop.

The Met Office Operations Centre in Exeter and its partner forecasting site in Aberdeen, form the operational heart of the UK's national weather service, delivering forecasts to customers across the world. As well as providing first-class forecasting, the Met Office leads the world in climate change prediction and is at the forefront of climate change consultancy, employing its world-renowned climate research from the Exeter-based Met Office Hadley Centre.

Observations underpin the forecasting of atmospheric conditions and data is collected around the world throughout the atmosphere to 2,000 metres below sea level. These are made into complex simulations on a supercomputer which along with modelling predicts how the atmosphere will change over time.

The main sources of observations are from weather satellites, balloon profiles, surface and marine data and aircraft observations. The Met Office is responsible for maintaining the observation network over the United Kingdom and contributes to the funding of weather satellites and buoys. Observations which are made 24 hours a day, all across the globe, are passed to the world's major weather forecasting centres.

'Assimilation' is the process of ingesting raw observational data into a numerical representation of the atmosphere in the forecast model. Even tiny changes in the atmospheric conditions can lead to drastically different weather patterns after only a short time, so it is vital that the current state of the atmosphere is represented as accurately as possible. This process is highly mathematical and today it takes the supercomputer longer to accurately estimate the current atmospheric state than it does to actually make the forecast...

Each day, the Met Office receives and uses around half a million observations of temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, humidity and many other properties to provide the starting conditions for their weather forecast model.

Computer power

In 2008, they signed a contract for a new supercomputer with IBM which is capable of 125 trillion calculations per second and will be the second most powerful computer in the UK and in the top 20 worldwide. The five-year contract includes a mid-life upgrade and by 2011 the computer will be 30 times more powerful than the previous supercomputer.

Strategic support

With current and recent operations taking place in hot environments, there is increased recognition of the need to adapt existing equipment to operate more effectively and to develop future equipment with a specification that will meet future environmental demands. There is also the expectation that UK Armed Forces will be called on to respond to humanitarian disasters around the world.

As well as their support for current operations, the Met Office advises on the likely impact of climate change around the world. This is increasingly relevant to strategic planning in defence which needs to look at every aspect, from operations, to procurement and future engagement.

Mission support

Met Office Defence Research Manager, Martin Holt makes sure that their work fits in the with Defence Technology Plan (DTP) to meet MOD requirements. From his base in Exeter, he describes how their work covers air, sea and land, with additional support for each of the Services. Holt is also keen to highlight the work of colleagues who work on the front line, supporting operations in Afghanistan: "The Mobile Met Unit are currently at Camp Bastion and Kandahar and undertake a key role in advising our forces on the potential environment impacts on their operations."

The Met Office has a range of mission support tools and delivery systems that look at the specific application of science for defence and where this can have an impact on missions. Dust forecasting is one example.

Using numerical weather prediction models, which represent the physical parameters such as wind, temperature and pressure as well as knowledge of surface soil type, moisture levels and weather predictions, they are able to predict amounts of dust and assist in planning operations. Holt explains: "We are in the final year of a three year research programme developing capabilities to forecast dust using weather modelling and information such as the size of grains of sand, rain fall and evaporations.

"We also have scientists looking at satellite applications and measurements that can be taken from space which can derive measures of dust and create a dust index. This can show how much dust will stay near the surface and how much will be lifted. This is a very exciting part of our research with a direct effect on operations."

The Met Office also have part share in an aircraft with the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) who provide comprehensive airborne research capability for the benefit of the environmental science community. Holt believes that this is a key research facility for the UK, taking measurements of atmosphere, aerosol and chemical characteristics. It was deployed over the Middle East earlier this year looking at atmospheric dust. Holt explains: "It also looked at infrared imaging and how dust impacts on ground operations. Infrared sensors and thermal contrast are affected by everything in the atmosphere. This work will help target acquisition and targeting. This is integrated with several lines of research and is very relevant to today's operations."

Target detection

Another application developed by the Met Office is Neon. Neon is used to assess the environmental impact on electrooptic sensor performance and when cross referenced with other information improves targeting decisions. Knowing when or where sensors will be able to detect a target is critical in planning and executing successful missions. At what distance will the sensors on an Apache helicopter be able to identify a ground-based missile battery from the surrounding area? Will this put people and assets at risk by placing them in range for possible counter-strikes? These complex mission decisions are helped by Neon.

The electro-optic sensor performance Tactical Decision Aid (TDA) Neon predicts the effect of the environment on the ability to identify targets. The latest version provides a range of features including estimates of target acquisition range and a Marine Target Model.

Planned enhancements in the next version include the use of dust and cloud predictions in the Radiative Transfer Model (RTM), improvements in the modelling of the background land surfaces and a greater range of targets.

It has recently been deployed for training with Apache squadrons and has also been developed for use by the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) aircraft. Holt believes this will give additional support to squadrons using Neon either ashore or on a carrier: "We are also looking at weather impact on JSF and if this will affect the aircraft and how our forecasts can advise pilots on targeting decisions using thermal imaging," he adds.

Night eyes

Improving the effectiveness of a range of night vision devices has enabled the military to carry out an increasing number of activities under the cover of darkness, including covert missions and identifying targets from helicopters.

Carrying out missions at night-time can provide a battle winning edge to the Armed Forces on operations.

Met Office Night Illumination Model (MONIM) provides information on the levels of available light so that nighttime missions can be planned more effectively.

Night vision devices work by amplifying available ambient light which can be generated from a number of sources including sunlight (at twilight), moonlight, starlight, airglow and cultural light. The level of available light is also affected by cloud cover. MONIM accounts for the transmission of these sources of light through the atmosphere to provide a predicted level of light throughout the night-time. This means that missions can be planned to take best advantage of conditions and it also provides tables of lunar and solar ephemeris data, such as rise/set and twilight times.

Holt believes that science and research play an important role in defence: "Ideas are continually evolving and building on more recent technology developments means we can bring forward a much greater level of capability."

Weather warning

A critical part of the Met Office's service to defence is making sure its information and support tools can get into the hands of military decision makers as and when they are needed. This is achieved by using a specially developed data server, the Joint Environmental Dynamic Data Server (JEDDS) which can be deployed onto restricted and secret military networks, providing detailed information from tools such as Neon.

The Met Office also provides forecasts to the MOD for test ranges and helps with test development for Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs). They provided forecasts for last year's Grand Challenge, which despite its August finale, was a victim to the English summer [it rained and was extremely cold! Ed]. Holt sees this as a good example of how weather impacts on defence, and as he says: "it can often be left as an afterthought..."

Read more about climate control...

There will be clear skies ahead...Mobile Met Unit support and advice for operations

For Met Office Defence Research Account Manager, Zoe Philcox supporting operations is more than just forecasting the weather. With seven deployments behind her, she is back at base in Exeter to talk about her experiences and how their work can make a real difference on the front line.

Weather and other environmental factors can have a critical impact on the success of operations and Met Office advisers travel to battle zones to offer support and advice to military decision makers. "As well as being trained meteorologists, we also understand the impact weather and the environment have on military operations. We communicate this advice in a way that enables timely and accurate decisions to be made that can provide our forces with a battle winning edge," explains Philcox.

But this is just part of their work. As part of the Met Office's Mobile Met Unit (MMU) they are deployed at bases in the UK and overseas (from Cyprus to the Falklands) and in operational theatres, working alongside deployed UK and allied forces. The MMU is a sponsored reserve unit of the RAF which can call on around 70 men and women who have undergone military as well as meteorological training. Philcox has been with the Met Office for nearly eight years and spent six months back in the classroom and a further five months training at RAF Linton on Ouse, North Yorkshire, before being sent on her first mission to Kuwait in 2003. Since then she has deployed four times to Basra, once to Bosnia and last year, her final deployment to Kandahar province in Afghanistan.

Advisers have access to the most up-todate weather information, whenever and wherever they need it, including outputs from high-resolution forecasting models, which can be set up wherever UK armed forces are conducting operations.

"Our main customer is usually RAF and we could be supporting helicopters, fast jets and transport planes operating from the base where we are located. We also forecast for army units moving around on the ground, some naval squadrons, the Special Forces, RAF and anyone else who can benefit from our support... We also provide a 'weather watch' which is passed to air traffic control to give warnings of bad weather, helping them to prepare for strong winds, thunderstorms and other challenges. We deploy with a portable weather station which measures wind speed, pressure, temperature, cloud base etc. and computers with satellite links to the Met Office which sends out numerical weather prediction model data similar to that in the UK, but with slightly less data and frequency."

Philcox works with anyone who can benefit from the information and support she can give, from senior executives to helicopter pilots who request information before a sortie. Face to face contact, she believes, gives the military extra confidence and by developing an understanding of the issues that are important to them, she is able to offer the appropriate support. "We make a real effort to find out what issues are important to them and give them plenty of warning of any potential weather problems, such as cross winds.

"This is really important as we are the experts on the weather and their operations are dependent on the conditions. The more we understand their needs and requirements, the more support we can give, as well as expert advice..."

But being on operations is not for everyone, and Philcox was very aware that she was in a war zone in Iraq where the base was under frequent rocket attack and they would need to take cover: "Generally, we would feel secure as we were working at the base, but this is part of the work and why we are there."

Now back in Exeter, Philcox can reflect on her experiences and use these to help with her current work as a Defence Research Account Manager. Asked to sum up her work on operations, she does not hesitate: "The camaraderie of working alongside the military gives you insight into the challenges they face and how we can provide valuable support. And yes, I would do it all again!